1 Scientific Institute of Public Law (Kyiv, Ukraine)
2 Koretsky State and Law Institute of NASU (Kyiv, Ukraine), LIENSs/CNRS, La Rochelle (France)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.29202/asl/16/4
Received: 8 September 2025 / Accepted: 3 December 2025 / Published: 30 December 2025
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Abstract
The article examines the transformation of the deterrence concept amidst the development of outer space as a new strategic environment for confrontation. Based on Thomas Schelling’s game theory, the author analyzes the changing nature of global conflicts – from “zero-sum games” to mixed-motive games increasingly emerging in the field of space security. Particular attention is given to the role of private space companies like Maxar, Iceye, and Capella Space, which significantly influence the distribution of power, information flow, and strategic planning during modern military conflicts, notably in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The article raises questions about the legitimacy of using commercial satellite data for military purposes and analyzes Russia’s position, which considers such activities military in nature and threatens the destruction of satellites. In this context, the key principles of international humanitarian law – distinction and proportionality – as well as the dangers associated with the forming orbital debris due to anti-satellite attacks are explored. The author concludes that there is a need for a new system of deterrence in space based on international law, accountability, regulatory mechanisms, and technological responsibility by both states and the private sector.
Keywords: space security, deterrence, game theory, balance of power, private space companies, international law, space law, responsibility, international law, regulatory, military.
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